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New Trade Alert December 15th – SLV Silver ETF


New Trade Alert for (SLV)

iShares Silver Exchange Traded Fund January 2019 $13.00 Call @$3.00 or less

Fallen and forgotten metals markets offer value at these levels.  Gold had gone straight down from $1300 an ounce before a bounce positive on the week. 
Silver has slumped to essentially unchanged over the last 52 weeks.  Look for a snap back attack to keep pace with Gold +10% over the last year.
Precious metals price shock potential is on the upside as safety buys in an uncertain world… 


SLV Silver ETF has stayed between $15 and $17 for over a year with solid support to lean on here.  Lean on $15 as a buying base to put reward to risk in our favor.



A push above $17 channel top targets $19, 25% above the current price.  A bigger breakout of the larger $13 to $20 channel  targets a measured move to $27 a far cry from the $48 2011 price extreme.    




The Options Way: Unlimited Upside Potential with Limited Risk.

A SLV long call option can provide the staying power for a market upturn.  More importantly, the maximum risk is the premium paid.


One major advantage of using long options instead of buying or selling shares is putting up much less money to control 100 shares — that’s the power of leverage.


Choosing an option can sometimes be a daunting task with all of the choices and expiration months and strikes.  Simply put, traders want to buy a high probability option that has enough time to be right.

The option strike price is the level at which you have the right to buy without any obligation to do so.  In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares. Simply sell the option you bought to exit the trade for gain or loss.  

There are two rules options traders need to follow to be successful.

Rule One:  Choose an option with 70%-plus probability.  The Delta is a measurement of how well the option reacts to movement in the underlying security.  


It is important to buy options that payoff from only a modest price move.  There is no need to ONLY make money on the all but infrequent large price explosion.

Any trade has a fifty/fifty chance of success.  Buying options ITM options increase that probability. 


That Delta also approximates the odds that the option will be In The Money at expiration.


Buying better options are more expensive, but they are worth it — the chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, long shot Out Of The Money lottery tickets that rarely ever pay off.  
With SLV trading at $15.20, for example, an In The Money $13.00 strike option currently has $2.20 in real or intrinsic value.  The remainder of any premium is the time value of the option.

Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need.  Time is an investor’s greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks. 

Traders often buy too little time for the trade to develop.  Nothing is more frustrating than being right but only after the option has expired premature to the market move.



Trade Setup: I recommend the SLV Jan 2019 $13.00 Call at $3.00 or less.


This option strike gives you the right to buy the shares at $13.00 below the 52 week low and a price not seen since February of 2016.  Therefore this option has the right to buy at a major discount. 




The January 2019 has 400 days for BULLISH development.  A 79 Delta on this strike means the option will behave much like the stock.
The maximum loss is limited to the $300 or less paid per option contract. The upside is unlimited.



The SLV option trade break-even is $16.00 at expiration ($13.00 strike plus $3.00 or less option premium). That is about 75 cents above the current SLV ETF price.


A SLV breakout move to the $19 target would make this option worth $6.00 for a 100% gain.   

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