Place order to sell the TGT April $50 Call at $12.00 or better for 50% profit in three months.
ORIGINAL October 6th TRADE ALERT BELOW filled at $8.00
New Trade Alert for (TGT)
Target Buy April $50 Call @$8.25 or less
Risk Rating: 2.5 (1 = lowest 5 = highest)
Above Break Even Probability: 52%
Max Loss Probability: 10%
Retail has been wrecked as the AMAZONIFICATION of brick and mortar has put fear of god into big box stores.
Target has dropped the exact 17% S&P has surged in the last year of trade. This comes after outperforming the broad market index last fall.
Sideways TGT has traded between $50 and $60 since March. Midpoint SUPPORT at $55 is a level to lean on.
The June extreme low had not seen a dip under $50 since January of 2012. Bullish divergence with new lows but not new volatility highs is often a sign the bottom is in.
A move above the $60 channel top targets $65 which stands 14% higher than the current price .
TGT stock is up 250% in the last 20 years and right now 33% off the 2015 high.
The reward to risk at these discounted levels is on the side of coffee buyers…
A stock substitution strategy using options ties up less capital and has absolutely limited risk to the premium paid. An option instead of buying the shares also has greater staying power for long term trend development.
The April option has over six months for Bullish development.
An In-The-Money option gives you the right to be long the shares from a lower strike price and costs much less than the stock itself.
The Options Way: Unlimited Upside Potential with Limited Risk.
A Target long call option can provide the staying power in a potential bullish trend extension. More importantly, the maximum risk is the premium paid.
One major advantage of using long options instead of buying or selling shares is putting up much less money to control 100 shares — that’s the power of leverage.
Choosing an option can sometimes be a daunting task with all of the choices and expiration months. Simply put, traders want to buy a high probability option that has enough time to be right.
The option strike price is the level at which you have the right to buy without any obligation to do so. In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares. Simply sell the option you bought to exit the trade for gain or loss.
There are two rules options traders need to follow to be successful.
Rule One: Choose an option with 70%-plus probability. The Delta is a measurement of how well the option reacts to movement in the underlying security. It is also important to buy options that payoff from only a modest price move.
There is no need to ONLY make money on the all but infrequent long shot price explosions.
Good Options can profit from only modest directional moves.
Any trade has a fifty/fifty chance of success. Buying options ITM options increase that probability. That Delta also approximates the odds that the option will be In The Money at expiration.
Buying better options is more expensive, but they are worth it — the chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, long shot Out Of The Money lottery tickets that rarely ever pay off.
With TGT at $57.00, for example, an In The Money $50.00 strike option currently has $7.00 in real or intrinsic value. The remainder of any premium is the time value of the option.
Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need — at least three to six months for the trade to develop. Time is an investor’s greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks.
Traders often buy too little time for the trade to develop. Nothing is more frustrating than being right but only after the option has expired premature to the market move.
Trade Setup: I recommend the TGT April $50 Call at $8.25 or less.
A close in the stock below $50 on a weekly basis or the loss of half of the option premium could trigger an exit.
An option play also has staying power with the ability to ride through Ups and Downs that would force most stock traders out of the position.
The option also behaves much like the underlying stock with a much less money tied up in the investment. The Delta on the $50 strike call is 83%.
The April option has six plus months for bullish development. This option is like being long the stock from $50, near five year TGT lows, with completely limited risk.
The maximum loss is limited to the $825 or less paid per option contract, with a stop at half of the premium paid to lessen dollar exposure. The upside, on the other hand, is unlimited.
The TGT option trade break even is $58.25 or less at expiration ($50 strike plus $8.25 or less option premium) about a dollar higher than the present price.
If shares move to the $65 measured move target this option would be worth $15.00 for close to a 100%+ return on investment.
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