Options for stock investors. A better way to trade.

New Trade November 9th – Blackberry Breakout


New Trade Alert for (BBRY)

Blackberry Buy BBRY June $5 Call @$3.75 or less

Risk Rating: 2     (1 = lowest   5 = highest)

Above Break Even Probability: 41%

Max Loss Probability: 11%


NEW ALL TIME FOREVER record highs in the NDX Nasdaq 100 index last week show no quit in Tech.  This sector is 25% off the August extreme lows and up double digits in 2015.

A onetime market maven, Blackberry has not been on the same upward path recently losing 23% over the last year. Blackberry has brand value to unlock.  The stock has seen a drop from $70 in 2011.

From June 2014 to June 2015 BBRY has traded in a wide band mainly from $11 to $9.   The stock decline found a triple bottom base at $6 in October.

Price action over the last four months has tracked between $7 and $8 to target $9 on this price breakout.  The $9 level also represents the halfway mark of the $6 to $12 of the last 52 weeks AND the old channel bottom to break through..        

A stock substitution strategy using options ties up less capital and has absolutely limited risk to the premium paid. An option instead of buying the shares also has greater staying power for long term trend development.

The June option has seven months for Bullish development.

An In-The-Money option gives you the right to be long the shares from a lower strike price and costs much less than the stock itself.

The Options Way: Unlimited Upside Potential with Limited Risk.

A Blackberry long call option can provide the staying power in a potential bullish trend extension.  More importantly, the maximum risk is the premium paid.

One major advantage of using long options instead of buying or selling shares is putting up much less money to control 100 shares — that’s the power of leverage.

Choosing an option can sometimes be a daunting task with all of the choices and expiration months.  Simply put, traders want to buy a high probability option that has enough time to be right.

The option strike price is the level at which you have the right to buy without any obligation to do so.  In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares. Simply sell the option you bought to exit the trade for gain or loss.  

There are two rules options traders need to follow to be successful.

Rule One:  Choose an option with 70%-plus probability.  The Delta is a measurement of how well the option reacts to movement in the underlying security.   It is also important to buy options that payoff from only a modest price move. 

There is no need to ONLY make money on the all but infrequent long shot price explosions.

Good Options can profit from only modest directional moves.

Any trade has a fifty/fifty chance of success.  Buying options ITM options increase that probability.  That Delta also approximates the odds that the option will be In The Money at expiration.

Buying better options is more expensive, but they are worth it — the chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, long shot Out Of The Money lottery tickets that rarely ever pay off.  
With BBRY at $8.05, for example, an In The Money $5.00 strike option currently has $3.05 in real or intrinsic value.  The remainder of any premium is the time value of the option.

Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need — at least three to six months for the trade to develop.  Time is an investor’s greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks. 

Traders often buy too little time for the trade to profit.  Nothing is more frustrating than being right but only after the option has expired premature to the market move.


Trade Setup: I recommend the BBRY June $5 Call at $3.75 or less. A close in the stock below $6 on a weekly basis or the loss of half of the option premium would trigger an exit.

An option play also has staying power with the ability to ride through Ups and Downs that would force most stock traders out of the position.

The option also behaves much like the underlying stock with a much less money tied up in the investment. The Delta on the $5 strike call is 88%.

The June option has seven months for bullish development.  This option is like being long the stock from $5, solidly below the decade low at $5.44, with completely limited risk.
The maximum loss is limited to the $375 or less paid per option contract, with a stop at $175. The upside, on the other hand, is unlimited.

The Blackberry option trade break even is $8.75 or less for the stock at expiration ($5 strike plus $3.75 or less option premium).    


If shares move above the $9 first objective the next target is the top of the old sideways channel at $11.  A move to $11 would nearly double the option investment.

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