Options for stock investors. A better way to trade.

November 8th UNDERVALUED OVERSTOCK New Trade Alert – Buy OSTK March 17.50 Call @ 6.00 or better

New Trade Alert for (OSTK)

 

OVERSTOCK – Buy March $17.50 Call @ 6.00 or less

 

 


Risk Rating: 4     (1 = lowest   5 = highest)

 

Below Break Even Probability: 49%

 

Max Loss Probability: 32%

 


 

 

Tech is NOT dead as evidence of Nasdaq still up double digits percentage wise in 2018 even after the profit taking pullback.

 

This is the third time in the last year tech has turned lower by 10% and each of the first two it rocket rallied to new all time highs.

 

 

 

Overstock venture into Bitcoin saw the stock peak at $90 in January.

 

A straight down move has OSTK is now 77% off that top.

 

 

 

 

 

Risk reward favors the bulls here for a short squeeze.

 

The first upside target is the top of the $20 to $40 trading range of the stock since April.

 

Just the recovery to the top of that recent range would see stock double.

 

Recent attempts on new lows have been rejected on much lower implied volatility that is bullish for a bottom.

 

Instead of buying long shares, a stock substitution strategy limits risk to the premium paid with unlimited upside profit potential.  Less capital is required and the risk is less in dollar terms than buying shares outright.

 

 

The Options Way: Unlimited Upside Potential with Limited Risk.

An OVERSTOCK long call option can provide the staying power in a potential larger trend extension.  More importantly, the maximum risk is the premium paid.

 

One major advantage of using long options instead of buying or selling shares is putting up much less money to control 100 shares — that’s the power of leverage.

 

Choosing an option can sometimes be a daunting task with all of the choices and expiration months and strikes.  Simply put, traders want to buy a high probability option that has enough time to be right.

The option strike price is the level at which you have the right to buy without any obligation to do so.  In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares. Simply sell the option you bought to exit the trade for gain or loss.  

There are two rules options traders need to follow to be successful.

Rule OneChoose an option with 70%-plus probability.  The Delta is a measurement of how well the option reacts to movement in the underlying security.   It is important to buy options that payoff from only a modest price move.

 

There is no need to ONLY make money on the all but infrequent large price explosion.

Any trade has a fifty/fifty chance of success.  Buying options ITM options increase that probability.  That Delta also approximates the odds that the option will be In The Money at expiration.

 

Buying better options is more expensive, but they are worth it — the chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, long shot Out Of The Money lottery tickets that rarely ever pay off.  
 
With OSTK trading at $20.40, an In The Money $17.50 strike option currently has $2.90 in real or intrinsic value.  The remainder of any premium is the time premium of the option.

 

Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need.  Time is an investor’s greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks. 

Traders often buy too little time for the trade to develop.  Nothing is more frustrating than being right but only after the option has expired premature to the market move.

 

 

 

 

Trade Setup: I recommend the March OSTK $17.50 Call at $6.00 or less.   A loss of half of the option premium could trigger an exit.

 

This option strike gives you the right to buy the shares at $17.50 per share, a price not seen since in more than a year with absolutely limited risk.

 

The option Delta is 71% so this position will act much like long shares at a sharply investment cost.

 

This March option has more than four months for development.
 
The maximum loss if the option expires worthless is limited to the $600 or less paid per option contract. A stop loss can be placed at half of the option premium paid to lessen dollar exposure.

 

The upside, on the other hand, is unlimited.

 

 

 

The OSTK option trade break-even is $23.50 at expiration ($17.50 strike plus $6.00 or less option premium) .

 

 

If shares recover to the $40 channel top, the option investment would gain 250%+ to $22.50.

 

Best,

Alan Knuckman
BullsEyeOption.com
alanknuckman@bullseyeoption.com


 

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