Petro Brasil Pop Play
New Trade Alert for (PBR)
Petro Brasil – Buy June $12 Call @ 3.25 or less
Risk Rating: 3.0 (1 = lowest 5 = highest)
Stocks have sold off giving back the 2018 gains.
The asset unwind has knocked down Crude Oil from $77 a barrel to under $55 for new one year lows.
This straight down move since the October four year highs has seen a drop into bear market territory…for now.
Things change quickly in the Oil market with geopolitical twists and turns. A recovery rebound to $65 to $70 May to September multi month range is likely as markets tend to come back to breakdown points.
Petro Brasil came within pennies of the year high before getting caught up in the macro melt down. A move back to the $17 double top targets $20 on a full “V” recovery.
Instead of buying long shares, a stock substitution strategy limits risk to the premium paid with unlimited upside profit potential. Less capital is required and the risk is less in dollar terms than buying shares outright.
The Options Way: Unlimited Upside Potential with Limited Risk.
A Petro Brasil long call option can provide the staying power in a potential larger trend extension. More importantly, the maximum risk is the premium paid.
One major advantage of using long options instead of buying or selling shares is putting up much less money to control 100 shares — that’s the power of leverage.
Choosing an option can sometimes be a daunting task with all of the choices and expiration months and strikes. Simply put, traders want to buy a high probability option that has enough time to be right.
The option strike price is the level at which you have the right to buy without any obligation to do so. In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares. Simply sell the option you bought to exit the trade for gain or loss.
There are two rules options traders need to follow to be successful.
Rule One: Choose an option with 70%-plus probability. The Delta is a measurement of how well the option reacts to movement in the underlying security. It is important to buy options that payoff from only a modest price move.
There is no need to ONLY make money on the all but infrequent large price explosion.
Any trade has a fifty/fifty chance of success. Buying options ITM options increase that probability. That Delta also approximates the odds that the option will be In The Money at expiration.
Buying better options is more expensive, but they are worth it — the chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, long shot Out Of The Money lottery tickets that rarely ever pay off.
With PBR trading at $14.00, for example, an In The Money $12.00 strike option currently has $2.00 in real or intrinsic value. The remainder of any premium is the time premium of the option.
Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need. Time is an investor’s greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks.
Traders often buy too little time for the trade to develop. Nothing is more frustrating than being right but only after the option has expired premature to the market move.
Trade Setup: I recommend the PBR June $12.00 Call at $3.25 or less.
This option strike gives you the right to buy the shares at a discounted $12 per share with absolutely limited risk. The option Delta is near 75% so this position will act much like long shares at a sharply investment cost.
This June option has seven months for development.
The maximum loss if the option expires worthless is limited to the $325 or less paid per option contract.
The upside, on the other hand, is unlimited.
The PBR option trade break-even is $15.25 at expiration ($12.00 strike plus $3.25 or less option premium).
If shares rally to take out the $17 double top the measured move objective is $20. The PBR option investment would gain more than double.