New Trade Alert for (X)
US Steel CASH SECURED PUT SALE –
Sell October X $13.00 Put @$0.60 or more to open
Risk Rating: 3 (1 = lowest 5 = highest)
Above Break Even Probability: 80%
Let expire or get long shares at $12.40
HIGH PROBABILITY 5% potential return in a month
BUY US Steel 15% Lower, or Get Paid Not To…
Volatility is OPPORTUNITY…
The crucial measure of payoff for an investment is RETURN on RISK.
Controlling and quantifying risk is the primary job of an investor. Once the worst case scenario is determined downside exposure to ANY possible event is calculated in dollar terms and financial impact on the portfolio only then can participation be weighed
Risk and Probability are the factors that can be controlled using options as the most positive attributes. The super leverage benefit is secondary to the ability to know the maximum cost of any potential catastrophic stock move.
US Steel posted new decade plus lows as the resource rout has renewed. Lower lows DID NOT see new highs in volatility with bullish divergence suggesting the sellers are somewhat subdued.
Commodities like steel have intrinsic real value and therefore potentially wild price swings year to year as the supply and demand factors change. The exhaustedly discussed China slowdown, from 7% GDP to a still robust 6% double the US, has put pressure on resources for the last few years.
X is down 45% since the first of the year and off 63% in the last 52 weeks. The stock was at $45 last year at this time with the decline accelerating when it broke below the $20 basing action.
The option volatility at the 70% level makes the option expensive in relative value compared to the market itself. Option selling strategies take advantage of the increased premiums.
The potential return on risk is 5% in a month is attractive with a $12.40 break even at the option expiration.
Buying at a 15% discount price if assigned is a way to position for a long term recovery in a single digit stock…. Or to get paid not to buy it at these extreme low levels.
The high implied volatility makes option selling strategies attractive as pure probability trades that utilize time decay acceleration. The October options have a month until expiration.
One strategy to buy at a lower price, or get paid not to, is used by money managers to buy stocks they WANT for long term portfolio positioning. Use others fears for your benefit by selling a CASH SECURED PUT to enter the stock at a major discount.
Option tactics can be employed to make money in Up, Down and Sideways action to take advantage of other variables or time and volatility.
The fear and uncertainty can be used to get in lower for those who are at worst are comfortable holding on to an inexpensive stock to wait for a potential recovery.
The straightforward Price Order to buy a stock at a lower level is common if it can be determined where it is comfortable to get in below current prices. Put in the trade at a price and wait for the dip to enter.
Professional money managers have certain points at which they would buy a desirable stock but an option strategy lets them get in at discount or get paid not to.
Selling a CASH SECURED put, has the same mathematical risk profile as a covered call, would assign the stock long at the option strike price. The true entry basis is actually even lower with the subtraction of the premium.
With the Put sale there is an OBLIGATION to buy at the strike price if it is assigned.
However, if the stock is not below the strike at expiration the premium received is all profit. Get in the stock at a discount or get paid not to…
As of this writing X is trading around $14.50.
There are two rules that Cash Secured Puts traders need to follow to be successful.
Rule One: ONLY SELL PUTS ON STOCK YOU WANT TO OWN.
Have the funds in the account to buy the stock at a discount if a selloff continues.
The intention is to be assigned the stock, each option represents 100 shares, as a long-term investment. Paying in full ensures that no additional money is needed to hold for potentially many, many months or even years until price recovery.
Rule Two: Sell either of the front two option expiration months to take advantage of time decay.
Collect premium every month on put sales until assigned shares at a cost reduced basis. Each month that you keep the premium is essentially money subtracted from the entry price.
ONLY sell this put if you want to own the shares at a discount to the current price.
The combination of time decay and 75% probability of X finishing above the $12.40 break even make the option sale attractive with one month until expiration.
The TEN YEAR LOW is just above $14.00 in US Steel
If assigned shares, a November covered call can be sold against the stock to lower the cost basis again when you own it.
If X stock does move lower, buy the shares for 15% cheaper than the current share price. Otherwise, you get paid not to… and get a 5% return on risk in a month.