HOT PLAY for Cold Winter
New Trade Alert for (UNG)
Buy Natural Gas Exchange Traded Fund April $6.00 Call @$2.75 or less
Risk Rating: 2.5 (1 = lowest 5 = highest)
Above Break Even Probability: 43%
Probability of Max Loss: 17%
Bulls Eye took an 85% UNG profit in June
Dollar power, up to nine month highs, has seen commodities surge slow from January extreme lows.
The nearly straight up move in Gold, Oil, Natural Gas to name just a few of the extraordinary performers, has stalled on realization that a the odds of a December rate hike is 75%.
The UNG Natural Gas ETF breakdown in 2015 below the $12 support accelerated the drop to a $6 extreme low in March. Bullish divergence and a short squeeze led to a bounce back to the $10 level just two weeks ago.
Support stands at $8 as the one year midpoint to lean on for a second chance profit play.
A push above the recent October peak to $10 would mark a full recovery back to November 2015 levels.
The measured move target in UNG is $12 with the long cold winter ahead.
The Options Way: Unlimited Upside Potential with Limited Risk.
A UNG long call option can provide the staying power for a market upturn. More importantly, the maximum risk is the premium paid.
One major advantage of using long options instead of buying or selling shares is putting up much less money to control 100 shares — that’s the power of leverage.
Choosing an option can sometimes be a daunting task with all of the choices and expiration months and strikes. Simply put, traders want to buy a high probability option that has enough time to be right.
The option strike price is the level at which you have the right to buy without any obligation to do so. In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares. Simply sell the option you bought to exit the trade for gain or loss.
There are two rules options traders need to follow to be successful.
Rule One: Choose an option with 70%-plus probability.
The Delta is a measurement of how well the option reacts to movement in the underlying security.
It is important to buy options that payoff from only a modest price move.
There is no need to ONLY make money on the all but infrequent large price explosion.
Any trade has a fifty/fifty chance of success. Buying options ITM options increase that probability.
That Delta also approximates the odds that the option will be In The Money at expiration.
Buying better options is more expensive, but they are worth it — the chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, long shot Out Of The Money lottery tickets that rarely ever pay off.
With UNG trading at $8.25, for example, an In The Money $6.00 strike option currently has $2.25 in real or intrinsic value. The remainder of any premium is the time value of the option.
Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need.
Time is an investor’s greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks.
Traders often buy too little time for the trade to develop.
Nothing is more frustrating than being right but only after the option has expired premature to the market move.
Trade Setup: I recommend the UNG April $6.00 Call at $2.75 or less.
This option strike gives you the right to buy the shares at $6.00 per share, down at decade plus lows, with absolutely limited risk.
The extreme energy crisis low was $5.78 in March. This option strike gives you the right to buy in at a major discount.
The April option has nearly six months for any BULLISH recovery. An 85 Delta on this strike means the option will behave much like the stock.
The maximum loss is limited to the $275 or less paid per option contract. The upside is unlimited.
The UNG option trade break-even is $8.75 at expiration ($6.00 strike plus $2.75 or less option premium). That is just 50 cents above the current Natural Gas ETF price.
A push back to the $10 resistance top targets a measured move to $12. At that level the option investment would gain 125%+ to $6.00.