New Trade Alert for (WFT)
Weatherford International CASH SECURED PUT SALE
Sell November WFT $3.50 Put @$0.20 or more to open
Risk Rating: 2.5 (1 = lowest 5 = highest)
Above Break Even Probability: 75 %
Let expire for a 6% return in a month and half or get long shares at $3.30
HIGH PROBABILITY 6% potential return in a month
BUY Weatherford International 17% Lower, or Get Paid Not To…
Volatility is OPPORTUNITY…
The crucial measure of payoff for an investment is RETURN on RISK.
Controlling and quantifying risk is the primary job of an investor. Once the worst case scenario is determined downside exposure to ANY possible event is calculated in dollar terms and financial impact on the portfolio only then can participation be weighed
Risk and Probability are the factors that can be controlled using options as the most positive attributes. The super leverage benefit is secondary to the ability to know the maximum cost of any potential catastrophic stock move.
Oil Driller Digging Hole
Weatherford International was sideways between $5 and $7 for nearly six months before a scary Halloween breakdown.
WFT is now trading at levels not seen since 1998 as the Crude Oil slide in the last two weeks double digit percentage losses.
Bullish divergence with new lows BUT not new highs in volatility is often a sign that the sellers are running out of steam.
Support stands at the $3 measured move target the distance of the channel below the old breakdown base.
It’s ALL ABOUT MATH…
The option volatility at the 97% level makes the option expensive in relative value compared to the market itself. Option selling strategies take advantage of the increased premiums.
The potential return on risk is 6% is attractive with a $3.30 breakeven at the option expiration.
Buying at a 17% discount price if assigned is a way to position for a long term recovery in a single digit stock…. Or to get paid not to buy it at these extreme low levels.
The high implied volatility makes option selling strategies attractive as pure probability trades that utilize time decay acceleration. The November options have a month and half until expiration.
One tactic to buy at a lower price, or get paid not to, is used by money managers to buy stocks they WANT for long term portfolio positioning. Use others fears for your benefit by selling a CASH SECURED PUT to enter the stock at a major discount.
Option tactics can be employed to make money in Up, Down and Sideways action to take advantage of other variables or time and volatility.
The fear and uncertainty can be used to get in another 17% lower for those who are at worst are comfortable holding on to an inexpensive stock to wait for a potential recovery.
The straightforward Price Order to buy a stock at a lower level is common if it can be determined where it is comfortable to get in below current prices. Put in the trade at “X” and wait for the dip to enter.
Professional money managers have certain points at which they would buy a desirable stock but an option strategy lets them get in at discount or get paid not to.
Selling a CASH SECURED put, has the same mathematical risk profile as a covered call, would assign the stock long at the option strike price. The true entry basis is actually even lower with the subtraction of the premium.
With the Put sale there is an OBLIGATION to buy at the strike price if it is assigned.
However, if the stock is not below the strike at expiration the premium received is all profit. Get in the stock at a discount or get paid not to…
As of this writing WFT is trading around $3.85.
There are two rules that Cash Secured Puts traders need to follow to be successful.
Rule One: ONLY SELL PUTS ON STOCK YOU WANT TO OWN.
Have the funds in the account to buy the stock at a discount if a selloff continues.
The intention is to be assigned the stock, with each option representing 100 shares, as a long-term investment. Paying in full ensures that no additional money is needed to hold for potentially many, many months or even years until price recovery.
Rule Two: Sell either of the front two option expiration months to take advantage of time decay.
Collect premium every month on put sales until assigned shares at a cost reduced basis. Every month that you keep the premium is money subtracted from the entry price.
Trade Setup: Sell the WFT November $3.50 Puts to open at $0.20 or better. The cash secured Put sale would assign long shares at $3.30 if it is assigned costing $330 per option sold.
ONLY sell this put if you want to own the shares at a discount to the current price.
The combination of time decay and 75% probability of WFT finishing above the $3.30 break even make the option sale attractive with just over two weeks until expiration.
If assigned shares, a December covered call can be sold against the stock to lower the cost basis again when you own it.
If WFT stock does move lower, buy the shares for 17% cheaper than the current share price. Otherwise, you get paid not to… and get a 6% return in just a couple weeks.