Options for stock investors. A better way to trade.

New Trade Alert March 16th – General Motors

 

New Trade Alert for (GM)

General Motors September $34 Call @$4.50 or less

 


Risk Rating: 2.5     (1 = lowest   5 = highest)

Above Break Even Probability: 46%

Max Loss Probability: 23%


 

Stocks have surged with double digit percentage gains since the election to extend the rally run to 250% in this 8 year BULL market.

 

Blue Chips have bounced 21% in the last year.

 

 

A once Blue Chip DOW stock General Motors unloaded the unprofitable European unit to get more lean and mean.

 

American automobile sales have been strong racking up records at more than 17 Million vehicles per year.

 

Infrastructure means trucks to me…

 

 

GE had tracked in a three month range from $34 to $38 setting the stage for a drive to new higher highs.

 

An upside breakout above $38 targets $42 another 14% higher.  For perspective GE had been in the $40’s in 2007.

 

A weekly close below $34 would void the bullish bias.

 

The Options Way: Unlimited Upside Potential with Limited Risk.

A GM long call option can provide the staying power for a market upturn.  More importantly, the maximum risk is the premium paid.

 

One major advantage of using long options instead of buying or selling shares is putting up much less money to control 100 shares — that’s the power of leverage.

 

Choosing an option can sometimes be a daunting task with all of the choices and expiration months and strikes.  Simply put, traders want to buy a high probability option that has enough time to be right.

The option strike price is the level at which you have the right to buy without any obligation to do so.  In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares. Simply sell the option you bought to exit the trade for gain or loss.  

There are two rules options traders need to follow to be successful.

Rule One:  Choose an option with 70%-plus probability.  The Delta is a measurement of how well the option reacts to movement in the underlying security.  

 

It is important to buy options that payoff from only a modest price move.  There is no need to ONLY make money on the all but infrequent large price explosion.

Any trade has a fifty/fifty chance of success.  Buying options ITM options increase that probability. 

 

That Delta also approximates the odds that the option will be In The Money at expiration.

 

Buying better options are more expensive, but they are worth it — the chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, long shot Out Of The Money lottery tickets that rarely ever pay off.  
 
With GM trading at $37.10, for example, an In The Money $34.00 strike option currently has $3.10 in real or intrinsic value.  The remainder of any premium is the time value of the option.

Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need.  Time is an investor’s greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks. 

Traders often buy too little time for the trade to develop.  Nothing is more frustrating than being right but only after the option has expired premature to the market move.

 

Trade Setup: Recommend the GM Sep $34.00 Call at $4.50 or less.

 

 

This option strike gives you the right to buy the shares at $34.00 with absolutely limited risk. 

 

The September  option has six months for BULLISH development.  An 73 Delta on this strike means the option will behave much like the stock.

 


 
The maximum loss is limited to the $450 or less paid per option contract with a stop loss exit at half of the cost to reduce dollar exposure.   The upside is unlimited.

 

The GM option trade break-even is $38.50 at expiration ($34.00 strike plus $4.50 or less option premium). That is just over $1 above the current stock price.

 

A push above $38 has a measured move target at $42.  At that level the option investment would gain nearly 100% to $8.00+. 

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