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New Trade Alert December 9th – NUGT

New Trade Alert for (NUGT)

GOLD MINERS ETF CASH SECURED PUT SALE

Sell December NUGT $7.50 Put @$0.35 or more to open

 


Risk Rating: 3.75    (1 = lowest   5 = highest)

Above Break Even Probability: 74%

Let expire  for 5% return on risk in a week or get long shares at $7.15.


 

HIGH PROBABILITY 5% potential return in one week  

BUY NUGT 12% Lower, or Get Paid Not To…

 

Volatility is OPPORTUNITY…

The crucial measure of payoff for an investment is RETURN on RISK.

Controlling and quantifying risk is the primary job of an investor.  Once the worst case scenario is determined downside exposure to ANY possible event is calculated in dollar terms and financial impact on the portfolio only then can participation be weighed.

Risk and Probability are the factors that can be controlled using options as the most positive attributes.  The super leverage benefit is secondary to the ability to know the maximum cost of any potential stock move.

GOLD is looking to hold after a 10% decline.  The stock surge has seen safety assets sold in a fire sale and all but ignored after the election bounce.

Treasuries and Gold have gone nothing but straight down for a month on a newfound certainty… that can quickly change.

 

Recent extreme lows in Gold below $1160 quickly rebounded and did not make new relative highs in volatility.  This BULLISH DIVERGENCE may be a sign of a last gasp by sellers.

NUGT has fallen from the $30 level in August.

IT IS ALL ABOUT THE MATH

The NUGT option volatility at the 125% level makes the option expensive in relative value compared to the market itself.  Option selling strategies take advantage of the increased premiums.

The potential return on risk is 5% in one weeks is attractive with a $7.15 breakeven at the option expiration.   The recent $7.20 is the lowest since February.

Buying at an 12% discount price if assigned is a way to position for a long term recovery in a single digit stock…. Or to get paid not to buy it at these extreme low levels.

Put the one week high probability percentage return in perspective.  The yield on the US Treasury 10 Year Note is now at 2.5%.  A 5% two week  payout or buy the stock at an 12% discount to current prices is a WIN, WIN proposition.

The high implied volatility makes option selling strategies attractive as pure probability trades that utilize time decay acceleration.  The December options have one week until expiration.

One tactic to buy at a lower price, or get paid not to, is used by money managers to buy stocks they WANT for long term portfolio positioning.  Use others fears for your benefit by selling a CASH SECURED PUT to enter the stock at a major discount.

Option strategies can be employed to make money in Up, Down and Sideways action to take advantage of other variables or time and volatility.

 

The fear and uncertainty can be used to get in another 12% lower for those who are at worst are comfortable holding on to an inexpensive stock to wait for a potential recovery.

Portfolio Strategy

The straightforward Price Order to buy a stock at a lower level is common if it can be determined where it is comfortable to get in below current prices.  Put in the trade at “X” and wait for the dip to enter.

Professional money managers have certain points at which they would buy a desirable stock but an option strategy lets them get in at discount or get paid not to.

Selling a CASH SECURED put, has the same mathematical risk profile as a covered call, would assign the stock long at the option strike price.  The true entry basis is actually even lower with the subtraction of the premium.

With the Put sale there is an OBLIGATION to buy at the strike price if it is assigned.

However, if the stock is not below the strike at expiration the premium received is all profit.  Get in the stock at a discount or get paid not to…

As of this writing NUGT is trading around $8.20.

There are two rules that Cash Secured Puts traders need to follow to be successful.

Rule One:  ONLY SELL PUTS ON STOCK YOU WANT TO OWN.

 

Have the funds in the account to buy the stock at a discount if a stock selloff continues.

 

The intention is to be assigned the stock, with each option representing 100 shares, as a long-term investment.  Paying in full ensures that no additional money is needed to hold for potentially many, many months or even years until price recovery.

Rule Two: Sell either of the front two option expiration months to take advantage of time decay.

Collect premium every month on put sales until assigned shares at a cost reduced basis.  Every month that you keep the premium is money subtracted from the entry price.

 

Trade Setup:  Sell the NUGT December $7.50 Puts to open at $0.35 or better.  The cash secured Put sale would assign long shares at $7.15, a price not seen since February.  If shares are put to you costing $715 per option sold.

The combination of time decay and 74% probability of NUGT finishing above the $7.15 break even make the option sale attractive with a month until expiration.

 

If NUGT stock does move lower, buy the shares for 12% cheaper than the current share price.  In the event that shares are assigned at $7.15 basis, a January covered call can be sold against the stock to lower the cost basis again when you own it.

 

Otherwise, you get paid not to… and get a 5% return on risk in one week.

IT IS ALL ABOUT THE MATH

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