Options for stock investors. A better way to trade.

MMM GOOD… Campbells Soup Trade Alert – Buy CPB January 33 Call @ 7.00 or less

New Trade Alert for CAMPBELL SOUP


Buy CBP January $33 Call @$7.00 or less



Risk Rating: 2     (1 = lowest   5 = highest)

Above Break Even Probability: 47%

Max Loss Probability: 23%


Stock Comeback Climb  


An epic rally has the S&P and Tech mark new ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS erasing the drop from the top.


Every recovery rally has added the distance of the profit taking pullback above the old peak.  That technically targets a 20% stock pop.


Some select stocks have lagged behind to offer amazing opportunity for a rubber band snap back…




Campbell Soup is down nearly double digits in the last 52 weeks.


Price action has bottomed out at $32 three times in the last year of trade.  CPB has traded between $32 and $42 setting up a rally run to $52 on a breakout..





CPB has shot above the $37 midpoint pivot of the recent range action.


A stock substitution strategy using options ties up less capital and has absolutely limited risk to the premium paid.  An option instead of buying the shares also has greater staying power for long term trend development.



The January option has nine months for development and only costs $50 more than the August three month expiration.


An In-The-Money option gives you the right to be long the shares from a lower strike price and costs much less than the stock itself.



The Options Way: Unlimited Upside Potential with Limited Risk.


A CPB long call option can provide the staying power in a potential bullish trend extension.  More importantly, the maximum risk is the premium paid.


One major advantage of using long options instead of buying or selling shares is putting up much less money to control 100 shares — that’s the power of leverage.


Choosing an option can sometimes be a daunting task with all of the choices and expiration months.  Simply put, traders want to buy a high probability option that has enough time to be right.


The option strike price is the level at which you have the right to buy without any obligation to do so.  In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares. Simply sell the option you bought to exit the trade for gain or loss.


There are two rules options traders need to follow to be successful.


Rule One:  Choose an option with 70%-plus probability.


The Delta is a measurement of how well the option reacts to movement in the underlying security.   It is also important to buy options that payoff from only a modest price move.


There is no need to ONLY make money on the all but infrequent long shot price explosions.  A modest move can make monster gains with the right option.


Good Options can profit from only modest directional moves.

Any trade has a fifty/fifty chance of success.  Buying options ITM options increase that probability.  That Delta also approximates the odds that the option will be In The Money at expiration.


Buying better options are more expensive, but they are worth it — the chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, long shot Out Of The Money lottery tickets that rarely ever pay off.


With CPB at $38.50, for example, an In The Money $33.00 strike option currently has $5.50 in real or intrinsic value.  The remainder of any premium is the time value of the option.


Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need

at least three to six months to be right.  Time is an investor’s greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks.


Traders often buy too little time for the trade to develop.  Nothing is more frustrating than being right but only after the option has expired premature to the market move.



Trade Setup: I recommend the CPB January $33 Call at $7.00 or less.


An option play also has staying power with the ability to ride through Ups and Downs that would force most stock traders out of the position.


The option also behaves much like the underlying stock with a much less money tied up in the investment.  The Delta on the $33 strike call is 78%.


The January option has nine months for bullish development. This option is like being long the stock from $33 with completely limited risk. 




The maximum loss is limited to the $700 or less paid per option contract.


The upside, on the other hand, is unlimited.



The CPB option trade break even is at $40.00 or less at expiration ($33 strike plus $7.00 or less option premium) $1.50 away.




Alan Knuckman

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