New Trade Alert for (K)
Kellogg January $50.00 Call @$6.75 or less
Risk Rating: 2.5 (1 = lowest 5 = highest)
Above Break Even Probability: 49%
Max Loss Probability: 25%
DOW has done it!!!
The score for the year is plus 15% on this epic recovery. The “V” recovery rally sets up for another 10% run.
Kellogg is not technically a DOW dog but belongs in the group of conservative steady stocks. Performance has been poor down 20% in the last year and nearly 5% in 2019 alone.
This laggard has risk to reward heavily in favor of the bulls looking at a bonce back.
K has been in a $50 to $60 in 2019 with a pop above the $55 midpoint pivot.
The push above the $60 resistance targets an move to $70. That objective is 25% above the current price.
The Options Way: Unlimited Upside Potential with Limited Risk.
A K long call option can provide the staying power for a market upturn. More importantly, the maximum risk is the premium paid.
One major advantage of using long options instead of buying or selling shares is putting up much less money to control 100 shares — that’s the power of leverage.
Choosing an option can sometimes be a daunting task with all of the choices and expiration months and strikes. Simply put, traders want to buy a high probability option that has enough time to be right.
The option strike price is the level at which you have the right to buy without any obligation to do so. In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares. Simply sell the option you bought to exit the trade for gain or loss.
There are two rules options traders need to follow to be successful.
Rule One: Choose an option with 70%-plus probability. The Delta is a measurement of how well the option reacts to movement in the underlying security.
It is important to buy options that payoff from only a modest price move. There is no need to ONLY make money on the all but infrequent large price explosion.
Any trade has a fifty/fifty chance of success. Buying options ITM options increase that probability.
That Delta also approximates the odds that the option will be In The Money at expiration.
Buying better options are more expensive, but they are worth it — the chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, long shot Out Of The Money lottery tickets that rarely ever pay off.
With K trading at $55.25, for example, an In The Money $50.00 strike option currently has $5.25 in real or intrinsic value. The remainder of any premium is the time value of the option.
Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need. Time is an investor’s greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks.
Traders often buy too little time for the trade to develop. Nothing is more frustrating than being right but only after the option has expired premature to the market move.
Trade Setup: I recommend the K January $50 Call at $6.75 or less.
This option strike gives you the right to buy the shares at $50 per share with absolutely limited risk. The last time K traded at $50 was 2012.
The January option has over six months for BULLISH development. An 74 Delta on this strike means the option will behave much like the stock.
The maximum loss is limited to the $675 or less paid per option contract. A stop loss at half of premium paid could be used to reduce the dollar exposure. The upside is unlimited.
The K option trade break even is $56.75 at expiration ($50.00 strike plus $6.75 or less option premium).
The breakout upside objective is $70 on a rally above the $60 range resistance top. At that stock price level the option investment would gain 180%+ to $20.00.