New Trade Alert for (XLF)
Financial Exchange Traded Fund Buy XLF January $20 Call @$6.00 or less
Risk Rating: 1.5 (1 = lowest 5 = highest)
Above Break Even Probability: 52%
Max Loss Probability: 11%
Stock Comeback Climb
An epic rally had the S&P and Tech mark new swing highs last week as major markets are 20% off the December lows.
In fact, two of the Big Three stock index measures were less than 3% from the ALL TIME HIGHS.
Some select sectors have lagged behind to offer amazing opportunity for a rubber band snap back…
XLF the financial ETF is off 5% versus the S&P up 10%.
The financial crisis was many years ago but markets still feel like they are fighting the last war. Banks have not yet recovered from the losses to make new record highs…yet.
Banks offer value at these levels with XLF now above the midpoint of the $29 to $22 drop from top.
A stock substitution strategy using options ties up less capital and has absolutely limited risk to the premium paid. An option instead of buying the shares also has greater staying power for long term trend development.
The January option has ten months for development and only costs $25 more than the June expiration.
An In-The-Money option gives you the right to be long the shares from a lower strike price and costs much less than the stock itself.
The Options Way: Unlimited Upside Potential with Limited Risk.
An XLF Financial ETF long call option can provide the staying power in a potential bullish trend extension. More importantly, the maximum risk is the premium paid.
One major advantage of using long options instead of buying or selling shares is putting up much less money to control 100 shares — that’s the power of leverage.
Choosing an option can sometimes be a daunting task with all of the choices and expiration months. Simply put, traders want to buy a high probability option that has enough time to be right.
The option strike price is the level at which you have the right to buy without any obligation to do so. In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares. Simply sell the option you bought to exit the trade for gain or loss.
There are two rules options traders need to follow to be successful.
Rule One: Choose an option with 70%-plus probability.
The Delta is a measurement of how well the option reacts to movement in the underlying security. It is also important to buy options that payoff from only a modest price move.
There is no need to ONLY make money on the all but infrequent long shot price explosions. A modest move can make monster gains with the right option.
Good Options can profit from only modest directional moves.
Any trade has a fifty/fifty chance of success. Buying options ITM options increase that probability. That Delta also approximates the odds that the option will be In The Money at expiration.
Buying better options are more expensive, but they are worth it — the chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, long shot Out Of The Money lottery tickets that rarely ever pay off.
With XLF at $25.50, for example, an In The Money $20.00 strike option currently has $5.50 in real or intrinsic value. The remainder of any premium is the time value of the option.
Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need —
at least three to six months to be right. Time is an investor’s greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks.
Traders often buy too little time for the trade to develop. Nothing is more frustrating than being right but only after the option has expired premature to the market move.
Trade Setup: I recommend the XLF January $20 Call at $6.00 or less. A close in the stock below $22 on a weekly basis or the loss of half of the option premium could trigger an exit.
An option play also has staying power with the ability to ride through Ups and Downs that would force most stock traders out of the position.
The option also behaves much like the underlying stock with a much less money tied up in the investment. The Delta on the $20 strike call is 90%.
The January option has ten months for bullish development. This option is like being long the stock from $20 with completely limited risk.
The last time XLF was at $20 was 2016.
The maximum loss is limited to the $600 or less paid per option contract.
The upside, on the other hand, is unlimited.
The XLF option trade break even is at $26.00 or less at expiration ($20 strike plus $6.00 or less option premium) just 50 cents away.